Talarico leading Cornyn, Paxton among Texas voters in Senate race poll

AUSTIN, Texas (CN) — As Texas Democrats continue their quest to end Republicans' 30-year statewide winning streak, new polling released Wednesday suggests U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico could make their dreams come true.

The poll, conducted by The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin between April 10 and April 20, surveyed 1,200 registered Texas voters' views on upcoming elections, the U.S. war with Iran and the state of the economy. Overall, the numbers showed voters in the Lone Star State are open to a change in representation at a time when prices for fuel are rising and support for the Trump administration's actions on the world stage is waning.

Coming out of the March 3 primary election, Talarico handily won Texas Democrats' nomination for the U.S. Senate, beating U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. Republicans, on the other hand, are still without a nominee after both incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton failed to get more than 50% of the votes needed to avoid the May 26 runoff.

When it comes to taking on either Cornyn or Paxton in November, right now, Talarico comes out on top.

With a margin of error of +/- 2.83%, the Democrat and current state House representative holds a seven-point lead, 40% to 33%, over Cornyn, with 19% of people having no opinion and 7% planning on voting for someone else. Similarly, Talarico leads Paxton by eight points, 42% to 34%, with the same 19% reporting no opinion and 5% supporting other candidates.

These results echo another poll released on Tuesday by Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan research group led by a Democratic strategist. Results showed Talarico leading both Cornyn and Paxton by three and five points, respectively. The poll surveyed 1,865 likely voters between April 17 and April 20, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

These results show a trend of Talarico's surging popularity in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994.

According to theTexas Politics Project poll, Talarico has garnered at least 80% of Democratic voters' support. He is also shown to have a small cohort of Republican supporters, with 10% backing him in a race against Cornyn and 11% in a race against Paxton.

Independents also appear to be falling in behind Talarico. In a race against Cornyn, 36% support Talarico while 13% support the senator. If the race were against Paxton, Talarico's support from Independents goes up to 39%, and Paxton trails behind at 14%.

Republican support for Cornyn or Paxton in a match-up against Talarico is at 60% and 63%, respectively. Both candidates have billed themselves as the best to help President Donald Trump achieve his goals in his administration's final two years. On March 4, Trump floated the possibility of endorsing one of them in a post to Truth Social.

Talarico being at the lead in his possible match-ups against Cornyn or Paxton stands out when compared to other races taking shape in the state. In the contest for Texas governor, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat state representative Gina Hinojosa 44% to 38%. And in the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Republican Dan Patrick leads with 35% over state representative Vikki Goodwin at 31%.

Voters were also asked about their attitudes toward the U.S. military's actions in Iran, revealing that 36% strongly disapproved of the actions, while 24% strongly approved and 13% both somewhat approved or disapproved. Moreover, 75% of Democrats and 68% of Independents are strongly opposed to the deployment of ground troops in Iran.

Republicans, however, are more open to the idea, with 23% strongly supporting and 32% somewhat supporting the idea, while only 15% strongly oppose and 20% somewhat oppose such actions.

With the conflict driving the cost of fuel up significantly, more than half, 61%, of Texans say they are very concerned about the price of gasoline and energy. And 51% said they expected the economy to be hurt by the U.S. increasing tariffs on foreign trade partners.

As for how tariffs have impacted voters personally, 83% of Democrats and 71% of Independents said they have been hurt. Republicans were split on the issue, with 28% saying tariffs have helped and 29% reported being hurt.

Following these economic concerns, 55% of voters said the economy had gotten worse. But when asked about their future outlook, 38% were optimistic that conditions would improve by next year, while 35% believed things may continue to get worse.

The Texas Politics Project is expected to release a follow-up snapshot of Texas voters' leanings in June. By then, the race for U.S. Senate in Texas will have a clear Republican candidate for Talarico to run against.